NFL player props · 2023–2026
Find the edge.
Or know there isn’t one.
Methodology-honest research for serious bettors: the engine’s own probability distributions, market context, and historical hit rates — with the sample sizes and limitations attached. Research, not picks.
Our model doesn’t beat the closing line. We’re the only prop tool that will tell you that — and show you the calibration to prove we’re honest about it.
Receiving Yards · vs BUF · 2024 wk 14
P(≥ 0.0) = 0.0%
0–20% band · measured -3.8pp over 2022–2025 (n=30) · Barely measured — 30 settled outcomes below 20%. Treat as unverified.
Each dot is one simulated outcome — 900 drawn from the 25,000 this projection ran. The probability is counted from the dots, not read off a curve.
A real curve from the browser — not marketing art. Explore it live →
How it works
01
Pick a player
Every projectable QB, RB, WR and TE — hundreds a season across 32 teams, 2023 through 2026. Every curve is a 25,000-simulation Monte Carlo run of that week's game.
02
Read the distribution
Not a single number — the whole probability curve. Drag the cursor to any line and read P(result ≥ line) straight off the engine's own output.
03
Check our work
The engine's full validation record is public — including the tests it failed. Sample sizes and limitations ship with every number.
What makes this different
No picks, ever
No plays, no leans, no units, no edge scores. It's a written commitment, not a current stance — we publish it so you can hold us to it.
Read the charter →The whole distribution, not one number
A projection of 62.5 yards hides more than it tells you. Drag the cursor to any line and read the engine's probability at that exact number.
Open the browser →Public calibration
Where the model is well calibrated and where it's measurably off — including the buckets that make us look bad. Permanent page, not a footnote.
See the record →What we
don’t do.
No picks
We never tell you what to play.
No edge claims
Our own validation found no reliable edge vs closing lines — and we published that.
No fake win rates
No cherry-picked records, no locks, no touts.
Founding member
$4.99/mo — locked for life
First 100 members. 14-day free trial, cancel anytime.